lost decade

Suddenly Stuck on Sideways: Banks, Not Babies Nor Bubbles

By |2019-03-18T12:58:13-04:00March 18th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What is Japanification? There are all sorts of ways to explain what the term can mean. The simplest is a single word, which for me is “sideways.” We live in a non-linear world meaning one where compounding is the biggest factor. Albert Einstein probably never said compound interest is the most powerful force in the [...]

Worker Wages And Who Is Really Winning

By |2018-10-04T18:19:59-04:00October 4th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Amazon made a huge splash when it announced it was raising wages. On the surface, it appeared to confirm all those stories about a massive, nationwide labor shortage. In addition, it positioned Amazon in the “fight for fifteen”, a political topic which raises more questions than provides answers. It was the rare occasion where populists [...]

Deutsche Bank Replaces Another CEO; Or, Bubbles And Money

By |2018-04-09T12:25:31-04:00April 9th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Another global bank CEO is given his walking papers. John Cryan’s tenure at Deutsche Bank was unsurprisingly brief. He began it by being realistic. Upon being hired for the top job, Cryan predicted his stay there would, “[depend] on how well we deliver on strategy, impress clients and reduce complexity.” It’s that last one nobody [...]

The Best ‘Reflation’ Indicator May Be Japanese

By |2018-04-02T17:16:00-04:00April 2nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Japanese industrial production dropped sharply in January 2018, Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry reported last month. Seasonally-adjusted, the IP index fell 6.8% month-over-month from December 2017. Since the country has very little mining sector to speak of, and Japan’s IP doesn’t include utility output, this was entirely manufacturing in nature (99.79% of the [...]

If They Wish To Replace LIBOR With Repo, They Should Already Start Thinking About Repo’s Replacement

By |2017-09-18T17:00:51-04:00September 18th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Sometimes you just have to laugh. A lot has been made on the inside of LIBOR’s assumed demise. The suite of interest rates is not being discontinued really, merely relegated to the backbench. As usual, the rationale for doing so is perfectly sound: As noted by the Financial Stability Board’s Market Participants Group, there are [...]

Data Dependent: Interest Rates Have Nowhere To Go

By |2017-08-14T18:20:05-04:00August 14th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In October 2015, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Bill Dudley admitted that the US economy might be slowing. In the typically understated fashion befitting the usual clownshow, he merely was acknowledging what was by then pretty obvious to anyone outside the economics profession. Dudley was at that moment, however, undaunted. His eye was cast toward the [...]

August 10; Emergency Calls, Reigning Confusion, and ‘Not My Job’

By |2017-08-10T17:08:34-04:00August 10th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In July 2012, the LIBOR manipulation scandal broke wide and before Congress then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke used it to cleverly cover up for his crisis actions (more so inactions). He told the Senate Banking Committee that the LIBOR system was “structurally flawed” before intimating it had been that way for some time. Asked if [...]

Subprime Is Contained (and other notable statements declaring They Really Don’t Know What They Are Doing)

By |2017-08-09T18:44:37-04:00August 9th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Ben Bernanke, then Chairman of the Federal Reserve, told Congress in March 2007 that subprime was contained. He will rightfully be remembered in infamy for that, but that wasn’t the most egregious example of being wrong. Even putting it in those terms risks understating the problem and why it stubbornly lingers. Being really wrong is [...]

The Staggering Costs

By |2017-08-09T17:52:50-04:00August 9th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Markets|

How do we measure what has been lost over the last ten years? There is no single way to calculate it, let alone a correct solution. There are so many sides to an economy that choosing one risks overstating that facet at the expense of another. It’s somewhat of an impossible task already given the [...]

You’ve Heard of Bear’s Funds, Why Not BNP’s?

By |2017-08-09T14:40:52-04:00August 9th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When Bear Stearns nearly failed, made to merge, in March 2008 it wasn’t really a surprise. Yes, markets were shocked by the demise of the ancient firm, one of the bulge bracket cartel which suggested surprise over the severity of it more than that things were going bad. For more than a year, starting in [...]

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