manufacturing

Just In Time For The Circus

By |2018-12-14T15:35:32+00:00December 14th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Just in time to follow closely upon yesterday’s European circus, IHS Markit piles on with more of the same forward-looking indications looking forward the wrong way. Mario Draghi says the ECB is ending QE, good for him. The central bank will do this despite balanced risks rebalancing in a different place. The more bad news [...]

Finally Closing The Book On Harvey and Irma, Opening A New Economic Chapter To?

By |2018-11-21T13:26:59+00:00November 21st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I, for one, am sick of still writing about 2017’s tropical season. It’s been well more than a year and yet we are just now finally moving past them. It would’ve been healthier and more honest had there been more appreciation for what they really were going to do for/to the US economy. Without any [...]

Continuously Misidentifying Constant ‘Overseas Turmoil’ Leads To Constant Everywhere Turmoil

By |2018-10-31T11:27:54+00:00October 31st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Overseas turmoil continues in October. The Chinese government released its Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI) for both manufacturing and services. Each one came in at a multi-month low. The National Bureau of Statistics calculated that the manufacturing version was just 50.2 this month, the lowest level since July 2016. The Non-manufacturing PMI fell sharply to 53.9 [...]

Fake Boom No Match For the Calendar

By |2018-10-25T17:23:25+00:00October 25th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The manufacturing renaissance at the base of this supposed US economic is disappearing. It is unsurprising, quite predictable actually. First, there was the cleanup from last year’s major storms and then frontrunning potential trade restrictions. Manufacturers domestically were gearing up for a whole host of non-economic reasons. If Keynes had ever been right about activity [...]

Just The One More Boom Month For IP

By |2018-10-16T18:20:29+00:00October 16th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The calendar last month hadn’t yet run out on US Industrial Production as it had for US Retail Sales. The hurricane interruption of 2017 for industry unlike consumer spending extended into last September. Therefore, the base comparison for 2018 is against that artificial low. As such, US IP rose by 5.1% year-over-year last month. That’s [...]

Rolling Over

By |2018-10-01T16:05:29+00:00October 1st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Here they come. After spending more than a year talking about nothing but good things ahead for the global economy, Economists are beginning to sound worried. In 2017, there wasn’t anything that could stand in the way of synchronized growth. In 2018, there’s no longer any synchronized growth, so now we can talk about what [...]

Synchronized Again?

By |2018-09-21T12:14:10+00:00September 21st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Last year around this time, the tropics provided some unintentional basis for what would become hysteria. Hurricane Harvey by soaking a major metropolitan area with a biblical amount of rainfall delighted Keynesians everywhere. So much destruction, so much economic growth potential on the rebuild. Then Irma flirted with the Gulf Coast spine of Florida for [...]

Further Diverging Productions

By |2018-09-14T16:39:40+00:00September 14th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Industrial Production in the United States increased by 4.9% year-over-year in August 2018. That’s the best for American industry in 92 months going all the way back to December 2010. Hurray for the boom. As with retail sales, August was in position for the best possible monthly comparison. Unlike retail sales, IP has another month [...]