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may 29

What IS The Problem?

By |2020-03-06T19:02:03-05:00March 6th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The 3-month Treasury bill’s equivalent yield has plunged, absolutely plunged. It was 1.45% last Thursday. Today? All of 45 bps. A one-hundred bp drop in six trading sessions. One hundred. Six days. Rate cuts, right? Sure, that’s the premise. Like eurodollar futures, the front end of the yield curve is saying that there are more of them coming. The Fed’s [...]

Much More Than This Week (TRDKWTAD)

By |2019-09-20T19:02:29-04:00September 20th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to the recent release of the Federal Reserve’s projected forecasts, that’s it. It wasn’t one and done like Chairman Powell had initially indicated, this “midcycle adjustment” hits two. And that is it, at least if you believe the current calculations spit out by the Fed’s models. It goes along with Powell’s blunt statement he made at the press conference [...]

May 29: One Year Later, No Longer Risks

By |2019-05-29T16:29:20-04:00May 29th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One year ago today, something huge broke inside the global monetary system. Exactly what, we may never know. I believe it was something to do with collateral and securities lending, the kinds of things that brought AIG to its knees in what doesn’t seem like all that long ago. In a rush, over several days, everyone around the world piled [...]

Curves Have Pointed The Way, And It’s The Way They Still Point

By |2019-05-10T16:52:02-04:00May 10th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In the middle of last November, when the Dallas branch of the Federal Reserve convened a conference on “global perspectives”, ironically, its officials were in a very good mood. The institution’s Chairman, Jay Powell, invited to speak at the gathering spelled out exactly why. Central bankers since Greenspan have made a habit of trying to say very little, but Powell [...]

Durably Sideways

By |2019-04-25T17:23:03-04:00April 25th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Next month, in the durable goods series, the Census Bureau will release the results of its annual benchmark changes. In May 2019, the agency will revise the seasonal adjustments going back to January 2002. Unadjusted data will not be, well, further adjusted. None of this, apparently, will include any information gleaned from the comprehensive 2017 Economic Census. I haven’t closely [...]

Labor Slowdown Already; Another Account Falls In Line of May 29

By |2019-04-11T16:41:00-04:00April 11th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

May 29. May 29. May 29. It keeps showing up everywhere. Not only does it appear as an inflection on so many important market charts, we keep finding it in economic accounts, too. There is so much to corroborate what can only have been a real and striking event. This contrasts, of course, with the mainstream narrative. Last year the [...]

Epic Flip Flop; From Surefire Inflation to ‘Muted’ in Three Weeks

By |2019-01-09T16:10:46-05:00January 9th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

And like that, it’s all different. For more than a year, two years, really, we’ve heard constantly about wage pressures. The US economy buoyed by several domestic factors as well as globally synchronized growth was in danger of getting too far out of hand. The unemployment rate said it was time – three years ago in 2015. The lower the [...]

Unmixed Signals

By |2018-12-27T17:31:43-05:00December 27th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In mid-December, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) published its regularly quarterly update. It was just in time for the current bout of “overseas turmoil” which included a lot that wasn’t overseas. The BIS noticed, I’m sure reluctantly. Financial markets swung widely, eventually netting a sharp correction, during the period under review, which started in mid-September. Asset prices fell across [...]

Eurodollar Futures: Powell May Figure It Out Sooner, He Won’t Have Any Other Choice

By |2018-11-19T12:52:06-05:00November 19th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For Janet Yellen, during her somewhat brief single term she never made the same kind of effort as Ben Bernanke had. Her immediate predecessor, Bernanke, wanted to make the Federal Reserve into what he saw as the 21st century central bank icon. Monetary policy wouldn’t operate on the basis of secrecy and ambiguity. Transparency became far more than a buzzword. [...]

The Last Holdout

By |2018-10-23T19:20:44-04:00October 23rd, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

True to form, whoever holds the government it is for them the best economy ever. It doesn’t matter political parties or otherwise affiliations. The rhetoric has become so unhinged that in the US former President Obama is trying to take credit for current President Trump’s economic “miracle” – that doesn’t actually exist. In India, the Modi government is following the [...]

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