monetary neutrality

Recovery Begins By Overturning Neutrality

By |2017-02-10T12:09:57+00:00February 10th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Quantum physics has always had a math problem, one that even in its early days the leading physicists were troubled about. Einstein famously remarked, “God does not play dice with the universe.” Erwin Schrödinger’s thought experiment now known simply as “Schrödinger’s cat” was meant to mock the Copenhagen interpretation rather than help explain it. But [...]

Even Officials Have Been Forced To Recognize It Was Never A Recession

By |2016-12-16T11:30:19+00:00December 16th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It is all but forgotten now, but in the latter part of 2012 there was widespread angst about a looming “fiscal cliff.” The so-called stabilizers put in place during the crisis were set to expire on January 1, 2013. That’s the deal with stabilizers, as they are always meant to be a temporary boost during [...]

Another Line to Cross Before Reflation; Nuns and Neutrality

By |2016-11-30T18:30:20+00:00November 30th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Talking with my colleague Joe Calhoun yesterday, he was eager to share with me something he found in the (virtual) pages of the Wall Street Journal, a perfect sign of the times. In a story about a group of nuns in Germany taking their financial future into their own hands, Joe couldn’t help but shake [...]

A Eurodollar Impression On the Corporate Side of the Bubble Economy

By |2015-03-23T16:23:55+00:00March 23rd, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Right along with the growing recognition that there is a systemic problem with labor utilization, and thus wages and earned income serious lag and cap true economic advance, there is at least the coincidence of financial factors that would offer a correlation if not full causation. It may be just that, coincidence, but even that [...]

The Drowning of Innovation As A Mathematical Inequality

By |2015-02-20T18:31:17+00:00February 20th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Economics as a discipline has always fancied itself more of a hard science than a social science. That is why economists like to talk like physicists as if there is surety in the figures they use so publicly. It has even infected media coverage of economics, as the nomenclature about economists’ predictions has taken on [...]

Dr. Strangemoney

By |2015-02-19T11:36:43+00:00February 19th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In an effort to prove that the Federal Reserve and ECB are not that far apart in at least philosophical terms, the European Central Bank released minutes from its historic QE meeting in January. Whereas the Fed has been using circular logic to “justify” at least bluffing toward rate hikes, the ECB apparently has done [...]

Doubting Economics

By |2015-02-03T18:27:44+00:00February 3rd, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Janet Yellen’s old institution, has made a habit of breaking with orthodox trends and actually citing and disclosing deficiencies in economic study. In its latest effort, the bank channels a bit of Stanley Fischer and states the obvious, or what everyone else has known for a long time: [...]

The True State of Recovery

By |2014-11-06T12:32:05+00:00November 6th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Politics|

With all the election post-mortems flying about, there really only needs to be reference to pre-mortems that predicted such results. Even typically leftist media outlets have seen the “message” for what it was. From The DailyBeast: Yes, the stock market is booming but overwhelmingly Americans are unhappy with their economic situation—and for good reason. Wages [...]

‘Dollar’ Tight Again, Though Maybe Wrong Fed Read

By |2014-10-31T15:24:07+00:00October 31st, 2014|Bonds, Commodities, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

It began more than a week before the FOMC meeting, as eurodollars again anticipated what the mood would be surrounding whatever the FOMC might say. “Dollar” conditions had run down significantly where the entire curve shifted lower (looser) for the first two weeks of October as doubts grew about the economy in the US and [...]

Common Sense Said It Probably Wasn’t Worth It

By |2014-09-30T11:22:43+00:00September 30th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When QQE was first officially introduced, I produced what I thought would be a “template” for the trajectory of the Japanese economy. On a strictly reasoned basis, without any forward calculations or regressions, the Japanese, and Bank of Japan in particular, were making a choice with what I thought was very little chance of ultimate [...]

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