monetary policy

Economics Is Easy When You Don’t Have To Try

By |2018-12-07T16:18:46+00:00December 7th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The real question is why no one says anything. They can continue to make these grossly untrue, often contradictory statements without fear of having to explain themselves. Don’t even think about repercussions. Even in front of politicians ostensibly being there on behalf of the public, pedigree still matters more than results. It’s actually worse than [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor – November 2018

By |2018-11-29T21:46:14+00:00November 29th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

Is the Fed's monetary tightening about over? Maybe, maybe not but there does seem to be some disagreement between Jerome Powell and his Vice Chair, Richard Clarida. Powell said just a little over a month ago that the Fed Funds rate was still "a long way from neutral" and that the Fed may ultimately need [...]

Eurodollar Futures: Powell May Figure It Out Sooner, He Won’t Have Any Other Choice

By |2018-11-19T12:52:06+00:00November 19th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For Janet Yellen, during her somewhat brief single term she never made the same kind of effort as Ben Bernanke had. Her immediate predecessor, Bernanke, wanted to make the Federal Reserve into what he saw as the 21st century central bank icon. Monetary policy wouldn’t operate on the basis of secrecy and ambiguity. Transparency became [...]

The Absurd Science

By |2018-11-01T18:24:15+00:00November 1st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Language is often said to be a living thing. Common everyday usage can and does introduce new words and changes the meaning of existing ones. But this is a gradual evolution, and rarely does the process leap ahead into more drastic alterations. Central bankers, however, are challenging such preconceptions. They write words that often have [...]

Europe More Than Europe: From ‘Boom’ To The Precipice of Recession

By |2018-10-30T12:09:57+00:00October 30th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Data dependent, they claim. They aren’t. Mario Draghi at his last press conference admitted, “incoming information, [is] somewhat weaker than expected.” There is so much riding on the word “somewhat.” Because of the weasel, the head of the ECB told the assembled media policy normalization was unimpeded. He did so with a straight face. Good. [...]

What’s Really Behind the Gathering Slump

By |2018-10-24T11:56:50+00:00October 24th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The housing slump accelerated in September. Matching the poor performance of resales, sales of newly constructed houses tumbled last month, too. According to the Census Bureau, there were 41k (unadjusted) single-family units sold. That’s down an alarming 18% from the same month last year. At a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 553k in September, the construction [...]

Canada Trade, Plain and Simple

By |2018-10-23T12:25:36+00:00October 23rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Bank of Canada held its benchmark overnight rate steady at its last meeting in early September. Like the Federal Reserve, Canada’s central bank has been “tightening.” The policy lever had been lifted four times starting in July 2017. It is expected that when monetary officials meet in Ottawa tomorrow they will vote for a [...]