Good Reason To Fear The Futures

By |2018-07-06T17:41:50+00:00July 6th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The eurodollar futures curve has already turned on them. That’s why the sudden interest in things like federal funds futures. If it seemed yesterday with the release of the last meeting minutes that the FOMC members appear to be getting nervous, there is good reason. The eurodollar curve is already slightly inverted. Remember, these contracts [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Growth Expectations Break Out?

By |2018-05-21T20:48:14+00:00May 21st, 2018|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

There are a lot of reasons why interest rates may have risen recently. The federal government is expected to post a larger deficit this year - and in future years - due to the tax cuts. Further exacerbating those concerns is the ongoing shrinkage of the Fed's balance sheet. Increased supply and potentially decreased demand [...]

A Possible First Step In Maryland

By |2017-06-13T12:41:40+00:00June 13th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Though we deal mostly in data, it is always prudent to remain connected and aware of anecdotes. It may even be more so in these kinds of times, where something like conditioning can desensitize analysis. Context is always important for any data, whether market or macro. My colleague Joe Calhoun pointed out recently a program [...]

Woe Unto The First Decade Of A New Century

By |2017-02-08T11:44:56+00:00February 8th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On February 8, 2007, exactly one decade ago today, shares of New Century Financial, a former darling of not just Wall Street but the mainstream, plunged 37% in panicky trading. The day before, February 7, New Century reported expectations for loan production for 2007 to be 20% below 2006 levels. But the real bombshell was [...]

No Weather For Home Construction

By |2015-03-17T10:15:48+00:00March 17th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As expected from home construction figures for February the level of starts has once again reverted toward permits. For some reason, especially in apartment construction, new starts of multi-family dwellings far outpaced permit levels in the “rebound” into the middle of 2014. There is no clear explanation for the divergence, especially since permit levels show [...]