oil

Eurodollar Futures: Powell May Figure It Out Sooner, He Won’t Have Any Other Choice

By |2018-11-19T12:52:06+00:00November 19th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For Janet Yellen, during her somewhat brief single term she never made the same kind of effort as Ben Bernanke had. Her immediate predecessor, Bernanke, wanted to make the Federal Reserve into what he saw as the 21st century central bank icon. Monetary policy wouldn’t operate on the basis of secrecy and ambiguity. Transparency became [...]

Approaching the Point of No Return? UPDATED

By |2018-11-13T15:18:52+00:00November 13th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At the end of June, the crude curve really got out of hand. WTI futures had returned to backwardation many months before, and then the eurodollar/collateral explosion May 29 sapped some crude strength. Over the following month, curve backwardation would become extreme as the benchmark price seemed ready to skyrocket. After getting up near $80 [...]

Let’s Just Pretend This Isn’t Happening, Again

By |2018-11-01T16:43:47+00:00November 1st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Why aren’t more people talking about this? It’s a huge development and nary a peep anywhere. The mainstream media is filled with baited expectations for 3% wage growth on Payroll Friday. All eyes are on the labor market, which is a lagging indication, instead of on the oil market, which is forward looking. As of [...]

COT Black: Term Oil Means Turmoil

By |2018-10-29T12:57:27+00:00October 29th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Inflation hysteria was as much crude oil as anything else. After all, it was the sudden spike higher in oil prices that would eventually push the US CPI, PCE Deflator, Europe’s HICP, and even Japan’s moribund inflation index. Central bankers were giddy, as was mainstream commentary extrapolating these trajectories into actual economic acceleration. For a [...]

COT Black: Powell Better Thank Congress While He Can

By |2018-08-28T12:02:04+00:00August 28th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Who can Jerome Powell thank for the PCE Deflator? Not Janet Yellen who handed off to him instead “transitory” factors. Nor was it globally synchronized growth which was supposed to have been the deciding element. Instead, it appears more and more that the only place where Chairman Powell might legitimately offer his gratitude is the [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor – August 2018

By |2018-08-15T13:36:41+00:00August 15th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

The Q2 GDP report (+4.1% from the previous quarter, annualized) was heralded by the administration as a great achievement and certainly putting a 4 handle on quarter to quarter growth has been rare this cycle, if not unheard of (Q4 '09, Q4 '11, Q2 & Q3 '14). But looking at the GDP change year over [...]

The Difficult Wargame of Sorting Financial Intelligence Signals

By |2018-07-20T17:45:01+00:00July 20th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

After the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, the Russians became hyperaware of US and NATO countermovements. There was an increase in bellicose rhetoric on both sides, and the Andropov years had left the Soviet leadership weakened by economic stagnation increasingly worried that the US just might launch a first-strike attack. The Communists developed a [...]

COT Black: Futures Curve Twisting

By |2018-07-12T17:34:08+00:00July 12th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There is an interesting, ongoing academic debate about what shape the crude oil futures curve “should” take. Quite naturally, it seems backwardation is the market baseline. Most people, I think, presume otherwise because of their familiarity with commodities like gold. Backwardation in that market implies a physical shortage. Unlike that precious metal, crude oil is [...]

Not Exactly Paradox, Reflation In Oil Deflation In Copper

By |2018-07-11T16:49:36+00:00July 11th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The PBOC really needn’t have conducted the last few of its RRR raises. By the time they were in the books, Chinese inflation was already well underway toward being tamed. Though their CPI wouldn’t register for a few more months still, peaking in July 2011, commodities had already turned decidedly downward. Copper went first, hitting [...]