Is It Over?

By |2018-05-01T17:10:13+00:00May 1st, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The world is full of anomalies. It may seem like a paradox, but financial markets are particularly eventful places. Something happens, some people notice, and most often it goes…nowhere. It’s all the time and a constant part of analysis, trying to identify and separate what is truly contained. The global eurodollar monetary system grew so [...]

It’s The Track Record That Is Unaccounted-for Risk

By |2018-04-25T19:46:51+00:00April 25th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

No one seems able to account for the rise in LIBOR-OIS. I think it’s a vain effort, and focuses on the wrong segments, but nonetheless there is considerable uncertainty which always casts suspicions into the shadows. That is important.  A few weeks ago, all the big bank analysts were alight with their theories. They couldn’t [...]

What’s In A Spread? Euro$ Futures Have Been Anticipating LIBOR-OIS For Seven Months

By |2018-04-02T19:44:42+00:00April 2nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Since LIBOR is a hot topic again, though no 2a7 in sight, I thought I’d add one additional perspective that isn’t found in any other analysis. LIBOR is, of course, a money rate applied not to domestic funding but eurodollars on offer in London. The current criticism of the rate stems from the fact that [...]

Systemic Blindness

By |2017-05-31T19:31:56+00:00May 31st, 2017|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

MF Global failed on a trade that would have made it enormously profitable. AIG’s portfolios of “toxic waste” ended up making money – for the Federal Reserve. Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers were ended like the others by liquidity, not losses. SemGroup was another firm that went into bankruptcy during that period, but one that [...]

Reflections On Recession Are A Very Real Affair

By |2016-11-14T17:33:33+00:00November 14th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Where are we in history when the avowed Socialist (capital “S”) from Vermont is the only voice of reason for the Democratic Party in the aftermath of last week’s election? I don’t intend to make this some kind of political screed against one party or the other; I am on record numerous times claiming the [...]