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Crude Contradictions Therefore Uncertainty And Big Volatility

By |2022-05-13T17:59:34-04:00May 13th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

This one took some real, well, talent. It was late morning on April 11, the crude oil market was in some distress. The price was falling faster, already down sharply over just the preceding two weeks. Going from $115 per barrel to suddenly less than $95, there was some real fear there.But what really caught my attention was the flattening [...]

Counting The Corroborated Stall, Not The Coming Lawfare Election Mess

By |2020-11-04T16:20:25-05:00November 4th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While we wait for the electoral count to be sorted out by what we hope are competent and honest people (not holding our breath), there’s a greater muddle growing where it actually counts and where it’s never fully nor properly accounted. By a large and growing number of accounts, the US economy’s rebound seems to have stalled out back around [...]

Sick Camels, Thin Straws, And The Global Virus (both of them)

By |2020-03-06T15:57:13-05:00March 6th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Unlike the headline Establishment Survey, the rest of the economic data isn’t surging like it’s 2014 all over again. On the same day the BLS issues the next blowout payroll report, the Census Bureau suggests instead US demand, at least for goods produced overseas, continues to decline at a precipitous pace. Seasonally-adjusted, there had been something of a rebound in [...]

China, Hurricanes, Inflation; The Inventory Projection

By |2018-04-10T17:35:30-04:00April 10th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Wholesale sales, seasonally adjusted, bounced back moderately in February 2018 after a sharp decline (revised even lower) in January. Sales in the latest monthly figures are left still lower than in December and only slightly more than in November. This is the familiar aftermath of Harvey and Irma’s aftermath. Unadjusted, year-over-year wholesale sales increased by just 6.9%. As the storm [...]

Reduced Trade Terms Salute The Flattened Curve

By |2017-12-05T12:43:14-05:00December 5th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Census Bureau reported earlier today that US imports of foreign goods jumped 9.9% year-over-year in October. That is the second largest increase since February 2012, just less than the 12% import growth recorded for January earlier this year. In both monthly cases, however, the almost normal rates of increase which would have at least suggested moving closer to a [...]

Wholesale: No Acceleration, No Liquidation

By |2017-07-11T12:15:23-04:00July 11th, 2017|Markets|

In the same way as durable goods orders and US imports, wholesale sales in May 2017 were up somewhat unadjusted but down for the third straight month according the seasonally-adjusted series. As with those other two, the difference is one of timing. In other words, combining the two sets, seasonal and not, we are left to interpret a possible recent [...]

Wholesale Sales and Inventory Revisions Don’t Change Much

By |2017-04-07T17:52:20-04:00April 7th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Wholesale sales rose 5.3% in February 2017 year-over-year after jumping by more than 12% in January on oil effects. Like calculated inflation rates, wholesale sales are for now marginally determined by energy price comparisons as well as calendar effects. February 2017 had one fewer day than February 2016, which according to the Census Bureau’s seasonal adjustments played some significant role [...]

February US Trade Disappoints

By |2017-04-04T11:56:33-04:00April 4th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The oversized base effects of oil prices could not in February 2017 push up overall US imports. The United States purchased, according to the Census Bureau, 71% more crude oil from global markets this February than in February 2016. In raw dollar terms, it was an increase of $7.3 billion year-over-year. Total imports, however, only gained $8.4 billion, meaning that [...]

Adjusting Wholesale Sales And Inventory

By |2016-12-12T17:28:28-05:00December 12th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When the estimates for factor orders were released earlier this month, there was an unusual pattern for the revision of September’s preliminary figures. Subsequent data suggested that factory orders were slightly less than had been originally calculated, yet despite that result for the unadjusted data the seasonally-adjusted estimate for factory orders in September was instead revised significantly higher. Overall, the [...]

Still No Growth In Wholesale Sales, Inventories May Start To Weigh

By |2016-11-09T17:42:47-05:00November 9th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Wholesale sales were flat in September, and flat overall for the quarter. They had declined sharply in July, rebounded in August, only to go nowhere for all the trouble. It is perfectly reminiscent of this whole economy, which fell in 2015 and then despite all projections otherwise never got back up. The best that can be said of it is [...]

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