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Not Really A Massive Payroll Miss, Just Reopening

By |2021-05-07T16:25:05-04:00May 7th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Huge miss. Whopping dud. Maybe it wasn’t nearly that bad?The consensus forecast had called for payroll growth in April 2021 of something like +980,000, in line with the previous blowout estimate for March. In the updated batch, first that prior one was revised downward to just +770,000 and then the latest guess put the current month at a seemingly awful [...]

Closing The Books on 2020 Didn’t Close The Books

By |2021-01-08T17:49:27-05:00January 8th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

ADP let the cat of the bag on Wednesday when the payroll processing provider announced it believed the level of private employment had declined in December 2020. Since it wasn’t likely to have been wildly inaccurate, it set the stage for a renewed negative number in the main government payroll report released today.According to those BLS’s Current Employment Statistics (CES), [...]

Inflation, But Only At The Morgue

By |2020-01-15T19:39:04-05:00January 15th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Why is everyone so angry? How can socialism possibly be on such a rise, particularly among younger people around the world? Why are Americans suddenly dying off? According to one study, two-thirds of millennials are convinced they are doing worse when compared to their parents’ generation. Sixty-two percent say they are living paycheck to paycheck, with no savings and no [...]

Suddenly Stuck on Sideways: Banks, Not Babies Nor Bubbles

By |2019-03-18T12:58:13-04:00March 18th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What is Japanification? There are all sorts of ways to explain what the term can mean. The simplest is a single word, which for me is “sideways.” We live in a non-linear world meaning one where compounding is the biggest factor. Albert Einstein probably never said compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe, but the reason the [...]

The Return of The Perfect Payrolls

By |2018-03-09T12:23:24-05:00March 9th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Over the past two days, Chinese exports exploded, US payrolls bested 300k, and China’s CPI recorded the hottest inflation in 5 years. Globally synchronized growth? It’s times like these where remembering how nothing goes in a straight line helps settle and ground interpretations. In thinking that way already, you are never surprised when there are good even perfect data reports [...]

The Reluctant Labor Force Is Reluctant For A Reason (and it’s not booming growth)

By |2018-01-05T17:13:10-05:00January 5th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In 2017, the BLS estimates that just 861k Americans were added to the official labor force, the denominator, of course, for the unemployment rate. That’s out of an increase of 1.4 million in the Civilian Non-Institutional Population, the overall prospective pool of workers. Both of those rises were about half the rate experienced in 2016. While population growth slowed last [...]

Payrolls Hit The Trifecta of Awful

By |2018-01-05T12:30:22-05:00January 5th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Last year was an objectively bad year for American workers. The latest payroll figures from the BLS for December 2017 fill out what was an awful picture. According to its Establishment Survey, the data that’s taken as the definitive source on the US labor market, total payrolls expanded by 2.055 million in 2017. That annual increase isn’t being lamented, however, [...]

Settling the State of Labor

By |2017-08-08T15:49:20-04:00August 8th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The JOLTS report for June 2017 showed another surge in Job Openings. Hitting a record high, the BLS estimates there were nearly 6.2 million, up sharply from 5.7 million in May. As many in the media like to point out, Janet Yellen has declared Job Openings a favored economic statistics purportedly as a gauge of labor demand. Why they think [...]

Chart of The Week; They Really Don’t Know What They Are Doing Version

By |2016-08-05T18:43:52-04:00August 5th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Given it is payroll Friday, it has to be a chart related to the futility of focusing on the headline number. There is any number of ways with which to accomplish this, but it serves well to highlight the relationship already presented in my view of this specific view of the payroll report. Economists often claim that the participation problem [...]

Payrolls: Trying To Find Meaning In The Meaningless

By |2016-08-05T12:23:52-04:00August 5th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The BLS released yet another perfect payroll report for July. It hit on all the major themes, putting further distance to the shocking May number. All the right people have been reassured by all the right parts. U.S. employment rose at a solid clip in July and wages rebounded after a surprise stall in the prior month, signs of an [...]

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