producer prices

China Prices Include Lots of Base Effect, Still Undershoots

By |2018-03-09T17:04:12+00:00March 9th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

By far, the easiest to answer for today’s inflation/boom trifecta is China’s CPI. At 2.9% in February 2018, that’s the closest it has come to the government’s definition of price stability (3%) since October 2013. That, in the mainstream, demands the description “hot” if not “sizzling” even though it still undershoots. The primary reason behind [...]

Inflation? Not Even Reflation

By |2018-02-09T11:20:30+00:00February 9th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The conventional interpretation of “reflation” in the second half of 2016 was that it was simply the opening act, the first step in the long-awaiting global recovery. That is what reflation technically means as distinct from recovery; something falls off, and to get back on track first there has to be acceleration to make up [...]

Chinese Inflation Is More Than China And More Than Inflation

By |2016-05-11T13:07:15+00:00May 11th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Inflation is a complicated subject that has been devalued as if it were simply some variable in an equation. It starts with the very premise itself, as if an index of a bucket of consumer prices equals a comprehensive review of the subject. As Irving Fisher realized more than a century ago, money can go [...]

By Contrast, The Chinese Are Skipping Full ‘Stimulus’ No Matter The Inflation Rate

By |2016-03-10T18:13:14+00:00March 10th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Europe is not the only location seeking out more “inflation”, as almost any central bank around the world except Banco do Brasil would do anything to find it. The ECB provided more emphasis in their panicked escalation today. In China, by contrast, consumer prices moved to +2.3% in February, which was the highest rate since [...]

China and US, Producer Prices Very Much Agree

By |2016-02-18T18:27:31+00:00February 18th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The PPI estimate for China was not a fifth straight -5.9%, instead the estimate for January 2016 was -5.3%; not appreciably different but at least not blatantly sticking with a single number. China’s CPI remained below 2% at just 1.8% in January, showing that as far as calculated “inflation” none of the PBOC’s massive efforts [...]

Production Discounting Globally Suggest US Consumers In Deepening Recession

By |2015-11-13T18:24:22+00:00November 13th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When addressing the inability of monetary policy to actually produce its “inflation” target, the FOMC has been left to hiding. They fully and openly admit the role of oil prices in the depression of calculated inflation starting late 2014 because they reason that it somehow doesn’t apply strictly within their mandate (as if it was [...]

China’s Obvious Baseline

By |2015-11-11T11:49:14+00:00November 11th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Once more we find no end in sight to the Chinese slowdown. To complete the weekly sweep of highly negative Chinese accounts, the major three released today were unfortunately complimentary to those already publicized. Only retail sales accelerated and by the smallest increment; in context, however, at 11% retail sales are still lower than the [...]

China’s Downturn Is Our Downturn Almost Perfectly Matched

By |2015-08-10T14:53:36+00:00August 10th, 2015|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In another of the innumerable cosmic coincidences that so abound these days, producer prices in China have been in “deflation” since March 2012. Not only is that 41 consecutive months of falling prices (insofar as this index captures that effect), that month is ubiquitous as a trend demarcation in so many other places. It’s as [...]