retail sales

The Relevant Word Is ‘Decline’

By |2018-12-14T16:44:35+00:00December 14th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The English language headline for China’s National Bureau of Statistics’ press release on November 2018’s Big 3 was, National Economy Maintained Stable and Sound Momentum of Development in November. For those who, as noted yesterday, are wishing China’s economy bad news so as to lead to the supposed good news of a coordinated “stimulus” response [...]

Retail Sales, The More Immediate Problem

By |2018-12-14T11:59:09+00:00December 14th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

How quickly hope can sour. That is, if it is based on suspect assumptions and a misreading of the general situation. It would then be more like irrational pleading than derived from solid analysis. One year ago, thereabouts, President Trump delivered upon one campaign pledge. He pushed a tax reform bill through Congress aiming to [...]

China Softly Weakens Some More

By |2018-11-14T15:37:47+00:00November 14th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There was nothing really shocking about China’s monthly economic statistics for October 2018. The Big 3, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Fixed Asset Investment, all continue along in the same way. The Chinese economy is not crashing, it may be slowing, but most of all there isn’t any more upside. It’s the last one that [...]

Fear The L

By |2018-10-26T18:38:37+00:00October 26th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s one thing if China registers a low ceiling or Brazil. That wasn’t going to be possible this time in the developed world. Europe and the US were finally going to lead. That’s what they said last year, anyway. Markets are freaking out about the growing evidence for so many growth ceilings. The other term [...]

Canada Trade, Plain and Simple

By |2018-10-23T12:25:36+00:00October 23rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Bank of Canada held its benchmark overnight rate steady at its last meeting in early September. Like the Federal Reserve, Canada’s central bank has been “tightening.” The policy lever had been lifted four times starting in July 2017. It is expected that when monetary officials meet in Ottawa tomorrow they will vote for a [...]

China’s Economy Is Not Crashing, It’s Worse Than That

By |2018-10-19T11:50:19+00:00October 19th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

China’s economy is not crashing. Hyperbole works both ways. Last year and this, the smallest increment above a prior number was broadcast out as the greatest thing ever (US wage growth in particular), irrefutable proof of globally synchronized growth. Now that that’s over with, largely, there will be a tendency toward the other extreme. The [...]

Now Back To Our Regularly Scheduled Economy

By |2018-10-15T12:03:00+00:00October 15th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The clock really was ticking on this so-called economic boom. A product in many economic accounts of Keynesian-type fantasy, the destructive effects of last year’s hurricanes in sharp contrast to this year’s (which haven’t yet registered a direct hit on a major metropolitan area or areas, as was the case with Harvey and Irma) meant [...]

Rebalancing China’s Rebalancing

By |2018-09-14T13:11:22+00:00September 14th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s no longer possible to know what state Chinese industry may be in. This is no small matter. Industrial production in China is the bedrock of economic growth throughout the rest of the world. Without it, there really isn’t anything left to do but struggle. And since industry’s performance there is predicated on demand in [...]

What May Be The Final Month of the Fake News Boom

By |2018-09-14T11:30:23+00:00September 14th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the second consecutive month, retail sales recorded by gasoline stations surged by an annual rate of more than 20%. It was the fourth month in a row where sales have been up by nearly that amount. Last year’s jump in oil prices is feeding through in a number of ways. From headline inflation rates [...]