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No Reflation Here: PBOC Balance Sheet Update May (Same As April)

By |2021-06-22T19:03:14-04:00June 22nd, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the month of May 2021, China’s central bank reported almost exactly the same as it had in April (or March). In the case of foreign assets, as has become standard, nearly identical. Despite reflation dollar flows being described and talked about, they still haven’t reached the official PBOC balance sheet which after so many months of this simply reduces [...]

The Chinese Money Behind Global Inflation Baseball

By |2021-05-18T19:28:16-04:00May 18th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

China’s economy is nowhere near recovered from 2020’s steep recession, yet, contrary to textbook demands, the Chinese central bank is winding down its support. This is especially important given that monetary policy last year hadn’t actually been all that supportive to begin with (see below). The two major money outlets, currency and bank reserves, were allowed a noticeable yet only [...]

What If CNY’s Backdoor Still Isn’t A Big Enough Exit?

By |2021-03-02T18:22:26-05:00March 2nd, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

China’s currency had been on fire for seven months straight. Rising nearly in a straight line, from May 27 last year until very early January this year, CNY had gone from a certain plunge into the devastating monetary abyss (unintentional devaluation) to a significant basis for Xi Jinping’s global boasting. This was no ordinary turnaround.The timing of it speaks initially [...]

Xi To Davos: If You’re Waiting For Us, We’re Waiting For You

By |2021-01-25T17:59:44-05:00January 25th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Chinese erstwhile dictator Xi Jinping asked the Davos gathering of the superrich, can’t we all just get along? More than a weird juxtaposition, appearing virtually before other virtual attendees, the Communist strongman wanted to make plain his view, therefore China’s, he harbors no desire for a renewal of the Cold War. Though we come from very different places and [...]

Six Point Nine Times Two Equals What It Had In Twenty Fourteen

By |2020-11-16T18:47:36-05:00November 16th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was a shock, total disbelief given how everyone, and I mean everyone, had penciled China in as the world’s go-to growth engine. If the global economy was ever going to get off the ground again following GFC1 more than a half a decade before, the Chinese had to get back to their precrisis “normal.” In 2014, the clock was [...]

The Contingent Hole In China’s Brazil Dollar Strategy

By |2020-09-11T17:35:20-04:00September 11th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Brazil strategy isn’t, of course, truly Brazilian. Like the Spanish flu which became famous for where it was first noticed and reported rather than where it originated, this monetary policy was thought up elsewhere and Banco do Brasil is merely the central bank which decided it was worth sharing.What is this Brazil (my term, by the way) policy? “Contingent [...]

Xi Has Upped His (Ruthless) Game; Dollar Scarcity, Chinese Economy, and the World Surrounding All of It

By |2020-08-25T19:19:03-04:00August 25th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There’s one key piece of the “petroyuan” story which has gotten lost in the frenzied hype. While many get fixated, and make others fixate, on how RMB-for-oil was going to, or maybe even still will, destroy the dollar there’s been important, legitimate functions for Shanghai’s International Exchange which don’t involve, and never really did, replacing the reserve currency. It’s all [...]

Not This Again: Time For Petroyuan Revisit

By |2020-08-20T19:54:15-04:00August 20th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Does anyone remember the petroyuan? It doesn’t appear so, though not because the thing disappeared rather due to the fact that it didn’t. It was a really big deal for a time, pretty much all of 2018. What it was supposed to have represented was the dollar’s death knell. Guaranteed, one hundred, no, one thousand percent dead. This was widely [...]

What’s In The Same Number? China’s Part In The (euro)Dollar Story

By |2020-08-04T19:26:42-04:00August 4th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There’s one part of the dollar story I’ve not yet touched on recently. We’ve already heard, too much, about how the Fed’s killing the dollar, or at least is aiming to with all its immense money printing fire power. While it’s the euro which has demanded so much from DXY that it almost seems plausible (to a few) this time, [...]

How Do You Say (Way) Off-balance Sheet In Chinese?

By |2020-06-24T19:38:33-04:00June 24th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Where central banks are concerned, it’s not conspiracy theory so much as the term “off-balance sheet.” There’s a reason Enron kicked off that mass-migration into the footnotes. For monetary officials, there’s the choice to be like Montagu Norman and what he thought of good practice at central banks. Silence.For years, the Chinese have tried it the other way. Big Mama [...]

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