rupee

They Want To Call It India’s Lehman, It’s Just Dollar

By |2018-10-02T18:08:44+00:00October 2nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Eurobonds are not a perfect substitute, but they may be someone’s only alternative. In some ways, Reflation #3’s weakness can be found originating in this context. The “rising dollar”, or eurodollar squeeze, of 2014-16 was a failure and even run on credit-based dollar funding offshore. If banks won’t deliver dollars, what’s left? Bonds. There has [...]

Downside Not Upside Global Risk

By |2018-08-28T18:59:35+00:00August 28th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The UST yield curve continues to flatten (as it does elsewhere). All sorts of mainstream articles have been published lately about it. Many of them often refer to academic pieces ostensibly trying assuage all fears about the yield curve’s threatening inversion. Fret not the distortion, they say. And they are right. As I constantly remind [...]

Unwelcome August

By |2018-08-13T16:58:51+00:00August 13th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy|

There is just something about August. It is irresistible, apparently, in all the wrong ways. For starters, there are big ones and small ones but somehow they all line up against liquidity and plentiful eurodollar money. In the former class there was, of course, August 9, 2007, August 9, 2011, and August 10, 2015. Even [...]

Acceleration

By |2015-12-14T11:47:02+00:00December 14th, 2015|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There isn’t much commentary needed here, as the prices and yields indicate everything relevant and important. I would only add that seeing August 24, October 15 and now the change (in acceleration) in December all add up to something different than the FOMC’s whatever influence. There is no monetary policy reason for the August 24 [...]

The Quick Burn of Balance Sheet Capacity Is the Recovery’s Mangled End

By |2015-11-06T17:13:40+00:00November 6th, 2015|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

While the stock market had one of its best months in years, it was, like the jobs report, uncorroborated by almost everything else. The junk bond bubble, in particular, stands in sharp and stark refutation of whatever stocks might be incorporating, especially if that might be based upon assumptions of Yellen’s re-found backbone. Do or [...]

Now the Franc

By |2015-10-13T14:14:19+00:00October 13th, 2015|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

With Chinese trade figures for September threatening a further reset, it is worth noting (yet again) that “dollar” funding isn’t much changed in October. In fact, there are several additional references to resuming the downward slide. Gold has been steadily bid since the September payroll report on October 2, while the eurodollar futures curve behaves [...]

Is The ‘Dollar’ Missing Something This Week?

By |2015-10-06T17:36:37+00:00October 6th, 2015|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

It has certainly been much calmer in October so far, especially compared with the deep deviations following the FOMC’s lack of activity. Stocks have rallied since October 1 along with many commodities, especially crude. Currencies have been almost mellow, with the ruble following oil prices upward, the real departing (for now) from its devastation and [...]