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Macro: Personal Income and Outlays

By |2023-10-28T18:45:57-04:00October 28th, 2023|Economy|

The growth rate of income and consumption are at healthy levels. But there are some aspects of the growth I'd like to point out. Though we have healthy rates of growth, the concern is that both incomes and consumption are slowing. I know we had excess savings from government transfers to the private sector. But we also had excess spending [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Good News Is Good News

By |2023-02-27T07:23:06-05:00February 26th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

I think everyone can agree that stocks and bonds sold off last year because interest rates rose. You might get some argument about why rates rose but the fact they did is sufficient to explain the drop in stocks and bonds. It doesn't matter if you think rates went up because the Fed raised their target rate on Fed funds [...]

Monthly Macro Chart Review – March

By |2019-10-23T15:08:29-04:00March 7th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Economy|

We're changing the format on our Macro updates, breaking the report into two parts. This is part one, a review of the data released the previous month with charts to highlight the ones we deem important. We'll post another one next week that will be more commentary and the market based indicators we use to monitor recession risk. We are [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: As Good As It Gets?

By |2019-10-23T15:09:14-04:00June 5th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

In the last update I wondered if growth expectations - and growth - were breaking out to the upside. 10 year Treasury yields were well over the 3% threshold that seemed so ominous and TIPS yields were nearing 1%, a level not seen since early 2011. It looked like we might finally move to a new higher level of growth. [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Ignore The Idiot

By |2019-10-23T15:09:51-04:00August 14th, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Stocks|

Of the economic releases of the past two weeks the one that got the most attention was the employment report. That report is seen by many market analysts as one of the most important and of course the Fed puts a lot of emphasis on it so the press spends an inordinate amount of time dissecting it. I don't waste [...]

Spending, Stagnation and the Revised Position of Instability

By |2014-09-03T15:25:27-04:00September 3rd, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Personal intuition usually serves well in both economics and finance, which is why, despite all the billions of dollars and amazing efforts otherwise, this business is still an art and not a “science” (even pseudo-). I should have remembered as such the last time I actually reported on a sentiment survey, as the Chicago PMI a few months back tumbled [...]

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