Scrooge’s Income ‘L’

By |2018-03-29T11:55:25+00:00March 29th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We keep revisiting the concept of “residual seasonality” quite purposefully, even though on its face it is an absurd one. It is in every way emblematic of the current state of Economics and the commentary derived from it. Residual seasonality is the kind of delusion that has become commonplace, a coping mechanism for an economy [...]

The Einstein Stimulus Equation

By |2018-02-20T18:16:16+00:00February 20th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The housing bubble began to reverse in the middle of 2006. Strangely, Economists presented with the possibility were almost uniformly confident that it wouldn’t matter. Forgetting the market and liquidity issues, even by the middle of 2007 it was clear the end of the housing bubble had already restrained economic growth. Confidence abounded anyway, largely [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Housing Market Accelerates

By |2018-01-02T17:19:29+00:00January 2nd, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Investing, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

The economy ended 2017 with current growth just slightly above trend. In general the reports of the last two weeks of the year were pretty good with housing a standout performer going into the new year. We are still trying to get past the impact - positive and negative - from the hurricanes a few [...]

Now It’s A Boom

By |2016-12-07T13:20:20+00:00December 7th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There is a distinction between actual, meaningful growth and plain positive numbers. Recession everyone can agree on, as nearly every economic account (but not all) finds itself with a negative sign. Because of the binary model that the mainstream associates with all economic conditions, the absence of contraction is conflated with meaningful growth, even where [...]

The Last Ride Of The Unemployment Rate

By |2016-11-28T16:05:17+00:00November 28th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s easy to set aside the nostalgia, so to speak, since this is likely the last Christmas holiday season to be talked about in the media in the positively glowing terms of the unemployment rate. Ever since the “recovery” began, each and every year the internet and TV channels are filled with stories about how [...]

The Payroll Problem

By |2016-11-04T11:51:38+00:00November 4th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The payroll report disappointed again, especially since October has in the past marked the end of seasonal weakness. Last year the headline for the Establishment Survey followed the usual summer doldrums: July +277k, Aug +150k, Sept +149k, and October 2015 +295k. This year, the sequence has been (with revisions): July +252k, Aug +176k, Sept +191k, [...]

It Was Never Numbers

By |2016-10-31T18:57:47+00:00October 31st, 2016|Markets|

Just over a week ago, the world (at least in chemistry) celebrated Mole Day. Rather than acknowledge the small underground mammal that immediately springs to mind, Mole Day is in honor of Amadeo Avogadro, the Count of Quaregna and Cerreto, who lived in the late 18th and early 19th centuries and contributed one of the [...]

Not Much To Headline GDP Revisions; Major Revisions Of Corporate Profits

By |2016-08-26T17:49:47+00:00August 26th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Second quarter 2016 GDP was revised slightly lower, from about 1.21% to just 1.09%. That changes nothing from the preliminary estimate, as real GDP has averaged now only 0.93% over the past three quarters since last summer’s major, global disruption. Since the FOMC declared risks “balanced” and heading toward “overheating” in late 2014, economic growth [...]

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