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stimulus

China Has No Room Or Any Real Reason To Rescue 2022

By |2022-01-25T19:02:46-05:00January 25th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When growth stops being growth, or the same growth, what do you do? The Keynesian textbooks all say “stimulus”, but what happens if the stimulus doesn’t stimulate? Worse, when it doesn’t stimulate because it can’t due to other pre-existing and intractable impediments.This is Xi Jinping’s dilemma and it only begins with the textbook’s missing chapters on eurodollar money.So, let’s start [...]

GDP Red Flag

By |2021-10-28T20:15:57-04:00October 28th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There were no surprises in today’s US GDP data. As expected, output sharply decelerated, modestly missing much-reduced expectations. The continuously compounded annual rate of change for Q3 2021 compared to Q2 was the tiniest bit less than 2% (1.99591%) given most recent expectations had been closer to 3%. It was only two months ago, mid-August, when the Blue Chip consensus [...]

Trying To Invest Prosperously In These Times Of China’s Common Prosperity

By |2021-10-18T18:04:20-04:00October 18th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Maybe the problem is the slogans, though I seriously doubt it. There are, admittedly, way too many and perhaps there is something lost in the translation. Going from Chinese to English can be notoriously tricky, and by sheer number of official catchphrases odds are a few are going to be miscast at the very least. Rebalancing. Rejuvenation. Dual Circulation. No [...]

The Chinese Have Their Own Policy ‘Dots’

By |2021-06-16T19:32:22-04:00June 16th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The FOMC’s “hawkish” dots for their June 2021 assessment weren’t an acknowledgement of recent inflation data in the US. That’s how many are characterizing the change, modest as it actually was. Inflation is about emotion in most places, especially when CPI’s and PCE Deflators, a healthy dose of producer prices, all seem to point to an overheating economy on the [...]

Fifteen Greater Than Fifty: Red Hot This Is Not

By |2021-05-14T17:43:07-04:00May 14th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

American consumers binged again in April, though not much more than they had in March. Previously delivered government stipends continue to inflate retail activity if not much else. According to the Census Bureau, retail sales rose “just” 0.7% last month when compared to the month before it. Given that March had been up (revised) nearly 11% versus February, any even [...]

Another Hundred Trillion For The Library

By |2021-04-28T20:06:17-04:00April 28th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Words have meaning for a reason, to convey precise ideas easily and readily understood by the reader or listener. If you use the term “stimulus”, as its root already suggests you’d expect something to be stimulated by whatever is being classified using this specific grouping of letters/sounds. Context rounds out the meaning.For the last twenty years, you’d have been wrong [...]

Perhaps Just One Word Absent From The Historic Consumer Splurge

By |2021-04-15T20:00:07-04:00April 15th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Enormous. Terrific. Unbelievable. Biggest ever. The superlatives for US consumer spending during the month of March 2021 are appropriate, and for once they aren’t caused by some artifact of arithmetic or some other trick. While there are absolutely some base effects within the numbers, these levels of retail sales are far and away more than those. It's so ridiculous that [...]

Maybe The Biggest Challenge Is Not To Get Carried Away

By |2021-04-06T12:38:25-04:00April 6th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Like a child fixated on a shiny new toy, I was enthralled by trading in WTI futures on Monday. There are times when end-of-day closing prices just don’t capture the full extent of what actually goes on during the several hours of any regular session, and yesterday was certainly one of those times. We’ve been on top of front-end contango [...]

OK NYMEX, Beginning To Notice The Fine Print?

By |2021-03-23T17:37:08-04:00March 23rd, 2021|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Is it a building case of/for selling the news? Another substantial down day in the oil market brings the total slide to just more than 13% (since March 5). Hardly anything earth-shaking on its own, not with the WTI front month futures contract gaining an impressive 85% since the end of October. During those four and a half months, the [...]

One Year Later: Why No ‘V’?

By |2021-03-19T20:12:44-04:00March 19th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Quick questions: who said the following, and when did this person say this? Our own country has tried one economic theory after another. The present Administration asked for, and received, extraordinary powers upon the assurance that these were to be temporary. Most of its proposals did not follow familiar paths to recovery. We knew they were being undertaken hastily and [...]

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