stocks

Monthly Macro Monitor – October 2018

By |2018-10-23T10:42:20+00:00October 23rd, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

Stocks have stumbled into October with the S&P 500 down about 6% as I write this. The source of equity investors' angst is always hard to pinpoint and this is no exception but this correction doesn't seem to be due to concerns about economic growth. At least not directly. The most common explanation for the [...]

Is It Over?

By |2018-05-01T17:10:13+00:00May 1st, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The world is full of anomalies. It may seem like a paradox, but financial markets are particularly eventful places. Something happens, some people notice, and most often it goes…nowhere. It’s all the time and a constant part of analysis, trying to identify and separate what is truly contained. The global eurodollar monetary system grew so [...]

Renewed ‘Reflation’ From A Short-term Dollar Perspective

By |2018-04-20T19:28:26+00:00April 20th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s worth revisiting the topic of the “rising dollar.” What determines its exchange value in the first place? Orthodox convention associates the general direction up or down with interest rate differentials, the infamous global carry trade. Not just any interest rate comps, either, but those of short-term money markets. Thus, if the Federal Reserve is [...]

Curse of the Zombie Junk

By |2018-04-03T18:57:43+00:00April 3rd, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

If the road to Hell is paved with good intentions, in economic terms the paving is done by zombies. We’ve all heard of the convention regarding Japanification. In desperation trying to avoid a worse fate, many of Japan’s tortured financial institutions were left open and operating so as to not force losses too much at [...]

Stocks’ Price to Eventually Ratio

By |2018-03-28T12:06:12+00:00March 28th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised upward fourth quarter 2017 Real GDP. The second estimate had been revised lower to 2.50458% (continuously compounded annual rate of change) from the advanced estimate. The third and final calculation raises the quarterly increase to 2.84707%. None of the changes are substantial. Accompanying these revisions are the BEA’s [...]

Chart of the Week: JPY, not Payrolls

By |2018-03-23T18:01:59+00:00March 23rd, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The biggest risk to the bond bear case, that expressed by Bill Gross, Jeffrey Gundlach, and Ray Dalio, is, ironically, stocks. Convention has it that rising interest rates are bad for them, but what are falling stock prices for UST’s? Historically speaking, the introduction of risk and even liquidations is bond positive. When the last [...]

Global Asset Allocation Update: Tariffs Don’t Warrant A Change…Yet

By |2018-03-09T11:28:10+00:00March 9th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Global Asset Allocation Update, Investing, Markets, Politics, Stocks|

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. We have had continued volatility since the last update but the market action so far is pretty mundane. The initial selloff halted at the 200 day moving average [...]

Escalation(s)

By |2018-02-15T18:29:14+00:00February 15th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

This is the Year of the Dog, or it will be starting tomorrow across Asia. Tonight marks the opening of celebrations for China’s Spring Festival Golden Week. These weeklong breaks in Chinese contributions to the global system have over the past few years rarely been so uneventful. Their absence has been noted both good and [...]

Small Tremors

By |2018-02-06T12:22:41+00:00February 6th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The current state of geological science cannot predict an earthquake. There is hope, however, that warnings might be realistically developed so that populations in danger of the “big one” can be given some sort of reasonable information about probabilities. In studying the past few devastating quakes, such as the 2011 9.0 that hit Japan twice [...]