t-bills

One Fragile Year In Review: It Was A Warning

By |2018-09-05T17:46:54+00:00September 5th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One year ago today, something broke. It wasn't a big thing, practically a footnote seemingly not worth mainstream attention. Out of nowhere, the 4-week T-bill yield spiked. On Friday, September 1, 2017, the equivalent interest rate for the instrument was steady at 96 bps. That was already a problem because the Federal Reserve’s RRP was [...]

Anticipating How Welcome This Second Deluge Will Be

By |2018-08-28T16:36:39+00:00August 28th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Effective federal funds (EFF) was 1.92% again yesterday. That’s now eight in a row just 3 bps underneath the “technically adjusted” IOER. If indeed the FOMC has to make another one to this tortured tool we know already who will be blamed for it. The Treasury Department announced yesterday that it will be auctioning off [...]

Whose Tightening Is It Anyway?

By |2018-08-21T16:15:14+00:00August 21st, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I suppose it’s only fair. After all, they started it. Earlier in the year, Federal Reserve officials including Chairman Jay Powell suggested it was all Trump’s fault. The abrupt difficulties presented by the dollar were, they said, the result of tax cuts swelling the deficit and thereby threatening capital markets with a “deluge” of Treasury [...]

EFF Watch, Or Is It IOER Watch?

By |2018-06-22T16:09:37+00:00June 22nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

How bereft of ideas might they have to be to fall back on IOER? It’s scandalous, really. But the Federal Reserve in terms of intellectual property belongs on the TV program Hoarders. They never throw anything away, so attached do they become to whatever ineffective idea implemented at any time. Practical experience is in their [...]

China Reopens With Another Sneeze

By |2018-06-19T19:22:00+00:00June 19th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If it seemed a bit calmer yesterday in global markets than has become typical, it was likely due to the absence of Chinese influence. China’s markets were closed for the country’s annual Dragon Boat festival, a holiday tradition that supposedly dates back 2,000 years. According to state media, it’s not strictly Chinese any longer. The [...]

Is Reflation #3 Over? Some Important Data Is Pointing Toward That Possibility

By |2018-06-19T13:28:42+00:00June 19th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As a starting point, the TIC data is enormously helpful. Not only does it provide some badly needed level of detail, the series’ focus is right in the area where everything matters. Ostensibly about Treasuries being bought and sold in foreign places, quite by accident the Treasury Department has captured an introductory measure of offshore [...]