We have a lot to be thankful for here in the US of A. It is sometimes hard to remember that while being constantly bombarded by negative news, about the economy and the country more generally. I don't like to comment about politics - I have to watch my blood pressure these days - so I'll stick to economics and [...]
Stocks, REITs, and bonds all rallied last week on the back of what was interpreted as good news on inflation. The CPI report was better than expected, the overall level flat from September to October. Core inflation, less food and energy, was also better than expected at up 0.2%. Producer prices, reported the day after CPI were even better, coming [...]
So, is that it? Have rates peaked? Is the long bear market finally over? The market decided last week that interest rates have peaked for this cycle. And if rates have peaked then all the assets that have been pressured over the last two years can finally come up for air. Since October 18, 2021, over two years ago, investors [...]
A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. - Warren Buffett, October 16, 2008, Buy American. I Am. , New York Times That was a month after the bankruptcy filing of Lehman Brothers, in the teeth of the Great Financial Crisis. At the beginning of the article he admits that [...]
Well, I finally got it. I've been fighting COVID for the last week and while most of my symptoms have improved, I am not 100% yet. My goal from the beginning of COVID was to avoid it, if at all possible, until it became endemic and less lethal. It seemed logical to me, a layman, that it would follow this [...]
I said a couple of years ago that I thought that once all the distortions were past, we'd be back to where we started prior to COVID, but with more debt. The decade from 2010 to 2020 was the slowest decade of nominal GDP growth since WWII and the prospect of another decade of that wasn't all that appealing but [...]
The employment report on Friday seemed like a good one. The unemployment rate was unchanged as the economy added 336,000 jobs in September. The gains were widespread with additions in manufacturing, construction, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation, warehousing, leisure and hospitality, healthcare and education, and government. Average hourly earnings were up 0.2% for the month and 4.2% year-over-year. It was [...]
Most strategic asset allocation strategies have produced negative returns over the last two years. A 60/40 allocation of Vanguard Total Stock and Vanguard Total Bond is down over 6%. John Bogle's 3-fund portfolio, a global approach that includes an allocation to Vanguard Total International is down nearly 9%. Morningstar has a diversified portfolio that includes 11 different ETFs and it's [...]
"Higher for longer." That's what the Fed says they intend to do with interest rates and investors finally decided to believe them last week. Bond yields, which have been stagnant since peaking last October, finally broke above the trading range they've been in for all that time. Short-term rates also moved higher but not as dramatically and the result was [...]
Everybody loves dividend stocks. Some prefer stocks with high dividend yields and some prefer stocks of companies that have grown their dividends consistently, but dividends are an essential component of many (we think it should be all) investors' portfolios. The two methodologies produce quite different portfolios but over the long run, they both perform very well on a total return [...]
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