us treasuries

US Banks Haven’t Behaved Like This Since 2009

By |2018-12-11T17:59:34+00:00December 11th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If there is one thing Ben Bernanke got right, it was this. In 2009 during the worst of the worst monetary crisis in four generations, the Federal Reserve’s Chairman was asked in front of Congress if we all should be worried about zombies. Senator Bob Corker wasn’t talking about the literal undead, rather a scenario [...]

Curve (Not) Crazy

By |2018-12-04T13:20:46+00:00December 4th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On August 30, 2006, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported preliminary estimates for US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the second quarter. It was figured back then that domestic output increased 2.9% over the first quarter, seasonally adjusted, somewhat of a decrease from the robust start to 2006. Final estimates for Q1 thought the [...]

Powell’s Hawk Loses Its Lift Even Before Oil

By |2018-12-03T12:54:42+00:00December 3rd, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Is the media data dependent? Depends, of course, on what you mean by “dependent.” One year ago, as December 2017 dawned, you couldn’t go a day even a few hours without some mainstream outlet publishing an ode to the LABOR SHORTAGE!!! A full part of the hysteria of the time, the idea of globally synchronized [...]

Selling UST’s + Hedging Costs ≠ BOND ROUT!!!!

By |2018-11-26T16:54:05+00:00November 26th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Maybe blame the ECB. On June 5, 2014, Europe’s central bank announced a change in monetary policy. Beginning June 11, their deposit account mechanism that acts as a hard floor for European money rates would be set below zero for the first time. It would mean any funds left on deposit with the ECB in [...]

Bond Bull Bull

By |2018-10-30T22:45:02+00:00October 30th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On February 12, 1999, the Bank of Japan announced that it was going full zero. Japan’s central bank would from that day forward push the overnight uncollateralized lending (interbank) rate to the zero lower bound. Further, it pledged to keep it there until Japan’s economy recovered. The economic slump in the nineties had been by [...]

COT Blue: A Short-term Path For Powell

By |2018-10-22T17:31:53+00:00October 22nd, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On December 12, 2007, the Federal Reserve announced its entry into emergency “non-standard” policy measures. In a belated attempt to “address elevated pressures in short-term funding markets”, the US central bank would begin auctioning reserve funds “against the wide variety of collateral that can be used to secure loans at the discount window.” The Term [...]

The Aid of TIC In Sorting Shorts and Shortages

By |2018-10-17T11:58:06+00:00October 17th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Asians are selling their Treasuries again, which can only mean one thing. The mainstream media will offer all sorts of explanations as to why that might be and not a single one will be correct. China and Japan are offloading US$ assets primarily federal government debt for vastly different reasons. Their decisions spring from [...]

The Risks of Expectations

By |2018-10-15T16:18:29+00:00October 15th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What do consumers know that Economists don’t? It’s a loaded question, of course, particularly in this day and age where Economists spend years perfecting the study of mathematics. In many ways, formal training is an impediment to analysis of the economy. There’s nothing wrong with learning about regressions, but it can and often does appear [...]