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us treasuries

I’m ‘Officially’ Calling It: Euro$ #5

By |2022-04-22T16:46:23-04:00April 22nd, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

This must be what the NBER feels like. That group of academic Economists simply took up the job of “declaring” each end of the business cycle. No one seems to have asked them to, nor was there any mandate official or otherwise. Sensing the opportunity, believing the job in keeping with the organization’s competence, or self-assessment of it, the NBER [...]

Re-Inversion + CNY

By |2022-04-21T20:09:51-04:00April 21st, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the third month in a row, China’s PBOC refrained from guiding its quasi-credit benchmark lower. This seemed out of line with what Premier Li Keqiang, in particular, had stated last week before authorities did drop the RRR rate on Friday. Saying that China would “step up” support for its faltering economy, however the RRR cut was half of what [...]

China, Japan, And The Relative Pre-March Euro$ Calm In February

By |2022-04-20T19:50:24-04:00April 20th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The month of February 2022, the calm before the latest storm. Russians went into Ukraine toward the month’s end, collateral shortage became scarcity, maybe a run right at February’s final day, and then serious escalations all throughout March – right down to pure US Treasury yield curve inversion.Given that setup, it was unsurprising to find Treasury’s February TIC data mostly [...]

Yield Curve Inversion Was/Is Absolutely All About Collateral

By |2022-04-15T01:49:20-04:00April 14th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If there was a compelling collateral case for bending the Treasury yield curve toward inversion beginning last October, what follows is the update for the twist itself. As collateral scarcity became shortage then a pretty substantial run, that was the very moment yield curve flattening became inverted.Just like October, you can actually see it all unfold.According to the latest FRBNY [...]

What, When, Nominal, Forward, Yes, Oil; or, Spreads Everywhere

By |2022-04-11T18:36:12-04:00April 11th, 2022|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

February 2005, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan goes before Congress to tell the simple-minded politicians there about his “conundrum.” They and the media eat it up because somehow the guy was declared the “maestro.” Even so, he had a major problem and it was nothing more than LT Treasury yields doing what they do; that is, pricing less growth and [...]

*Every* Time, Debt Ceiling Impacts Collateral Producing Inevitable Deflationary Currency

By |2022-04-07T20:15:34-04:00April 7th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Last September 28, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrote to Nancy Pelosi of the House of Representatives to inform its Speaker that the government would run out of cash, and accounting tricks, by October 18. Unless Congress, starting in the House, did something about the so-called debt ceiling, Treasury would be forced to take even more restrictive, potentially destructive means to [...]

Treasuries, Sure, What About Other Government Bond Curves?

By |2022-04-05T19:53:14-04:00April 5th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The US Treasury curve, as you might have heard, is inverted. After today’s repeat sell-off, it’s a little less inverted than it had been recently (un-inverted in the 2s10s, which isn’t unusual) given how yields closed at the longer end up more than those up front and middle. The zig-zag back and forth of ultra-short run market fluctuations continues.But what [...]

Curve Wars: Short Follows Long Because It’s *Never* Just One Part or One Curve

By |2022-04-04T17:52:51-04:00April 4th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Why is the yield curve so steep up at its front? The obvious answer is “rate hikes” and while technically true this leaves out an important set of historical facts. These are that the agency responsible for the rate hikes will, undoubtedly, stick with them regardless of actual conditions on the ground until a forward time when doing so could [...]

The Short, Sweet Income Case For Ugly Inversion(s), Too

By |2022-04-01T19:21:53-04:00April 1st, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

A nod to just how backward and upside down the world is now. The economic data everyone is made to pay attention to, payrolls, that one is, in my view, irrelevant. As is the consumer price estimates from earlier this week, the PCE Deflator. That’s another one which receives vast amounts of interest even though it is already old news.Yet, [...]

A(nother) Waste of Our Time

By |2022-04-01T17:57:42-04:00April 1st, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s been a while, but the BLS finally got around to releasing a near-perfect payroll report. These had been incredibly common even during prior downturns and near recessions, which should only raise questions about them. Among any immediate concerns, how relevant can these data points be?In our current day, like the consumer price data, they’re already old news. That’s not [...]

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