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wholesale inventory

Not Surprisingly, It Wasn’t Italy

By |2019-02-25T16:39:18-05:00February 25th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s so obscure now, I actually had to go back and reread what was going on there at the time. On May 29, the mainstream consensus was how Italian populists were screwing up Europe. Global bond markets were supposed to be selling off, massacred as global recovery took hold. Instead, worldwide the most liquid, safe instruments had been hugely bid [...]

China, Hurricanes, Inflation; The Inventory Projection

By |2018-04-10T17:35:30-04:00April 10th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Wholesale sales, seasonally adjusted, bounced back moderately in February 2018 after a sharp decline (revised even lower) in January. Sales in the latest monthly figures are left still lower than in December and only slightly more than in November. This is the familiar aftermath of Harvey and Irma’s aftermath. Unadjusted, year-over-year wholesale sales increased by just 6.9%. As the storm [...]

Hurricane Wholesale

By |2018-03-12T19:22:07-04:00March 12th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Wholesale sales were up 10% year-over-year in January. But like every other economic account, the bulk of those gains were registered in the aftermath of Harvey and Irma. Seasonally-adjusted, wholesale sales predictably declined in January. Compared to other data points like imports, it’s literally the same pattern. Petroleum sales do account for a lot of the increase, however. In August [...]

Black Friday to Thanksgiving Weekend, Discontinuities Aside

By |2017-11-28T16:41:10-05:00November 28th, 2017|Markets|

I was expecting quite a bit more, but perhaps should not be surprised at what was actually delivered. The National Retail Federation (NRF) after delaying its Black Friday retail spending estimates updated them later today for the now designated Thanksgiving Weekend. These new figures capture spending activity on both Thanksgiving Day itself as well as the much-discussed Cyber Monday. The [...]

Cyber Monday Was Great, But Inventory Looks At More Than Online Holiday Shopping

By |2017-11-28T12:13:02-05:00November 28th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As expected, Cyber Monday hit records all across the retail industry. According to Adobe Insights, sales recorded by online outlets, including those of traditional brick and mortar stores, hit $6.59 billion. That’s a record not just for a Cyber Monday but any single day in the internet’s two decades of mainstream usage. It was, Adobe said, a gain of 16.8% [...]

Why So Much Inventory?

By |2017-09-08T12:40:32-04:00September 8th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Liquidity and more so liquidity preferences are vastly misunderstood for a whole host of reasons. A lot of it has to do with the dominant strains of Economics battling each other (saltwater vs. freshwater) over which statistical model fails less frequently. In shifting to mathematics and statistics, something great has been lost. Economists don’t understand how an economy works; and [...]

Inventory Slips Higher, Downside Economic Risks That Much More

By |2017-08-15T18:10:13-04:00August 15th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Last week the Commerce Department reported wholesale sales in June 2017 had risen by 5.6% year-over-year (unadjusted). Having increased by nearly 10% in May, and by the most in five years in January, 5.6% was instead the same kind of 2014 disappointment that is becoming far too common. These growth figures include petroleum sales on the wholesale level, meaning that [...]

Wholesale: No Acceleration, No Liquidation

By |2017-07-11T12:15:23-04:00July 11th, 2017|Markets|

In the same way as durable goods orders and US imports, wholesale sales in May 2017 were up somewhat unadjusted but down for the third straight month according the seasonally-adjusted series. As with those other two, the difference is one of timing. In other words, combining the two sets, seasonal and not, we are left to interpret a possible recent [...]

More And More An Inventory Story

By |2017-05-09T17:05:51-04:00May 9th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Wholesale sales were up 8.3% in March 2017 unadjusted year-over-year. Like other accounts, however, the seasonally adjusted series was not impressed. On an adjusted basis, sales were flat month-over-month, just $50 million more in March than February. It isn’t clear what the problem might be, as the only calendar aberration is Easter that fell in March 2016 but not March [...]

Wholesale Sales and Inventory Revisions Don’t Change Much

By |2017-04-07T17:52:20-04:00April 7th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Wholesale sales rose 5.3% in February 2017 year-over-year after jumping by more than 12% in January on oil effects. Like calculated inflation rates, wholesale sales are for now marginally determined by energy price comparisons as well as calendar effects. February 2017 had one fewer day than February 2016, which according to the Census Bureau’s seasonal adjustments played some significant role [...]

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