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Inflation Hysteria Takes Another Big Hit

By |2018-04-11T11:58:01+00:00April 11th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As it turns out, those “transitory” inflation factors were worth only about 25 bps on the core CPI rate. This isn’t at all surprising and was as usual entirely predictable. But when you don’t have any answers there is a lamentable tendency toward denial or deliberate evasion, even if that leads toward the ridiculous. Base [...]

Good or Bad, But Surely Not Transitory

By |2018-01-12T16:06:20+00:00January 12th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When Federal Reserve officials first started last year to mention wireless network data plans as a possible explanation for a fifth year of “transitory” factors holding back consumer price inflation, it seemed a bit transparent. One of the reasons for immediately doubting their sincerity was the history of that particular piece of the CPI (or [...]

Non-Transitory Meandering

By |2017-09-29T17:08:38+00:00September 29th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Monetary officials continue to maintain that inflation will eventually meet their 2% target on a sustained basis. They have no other choice, really, because in a monetary regime of rational expectations for it not to happen would require a radical overhaul of several core theories. Outside of just the two months earlier this year, the [...]