fbpx

wti futures

COT Black: Powell Better Thank Congress While He Can

By |2018-08-28T12:02:04-04:00August 28th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Who can Jerome Powell thank for the PCE Deflator? Not Janet Yellen who handed off to him instead “transitory” factors. Nor was it globally synchronized growth which was supposed to have been the deciding element. Instead, it appears more and more that the only place where Chairman Powell might legitimately offer his gratitude is the US Congress. We have to [...]

COT Black: Futures Curve Twisting

By |2018-07-12T17:34:08-04:00July 12th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There is an interesting, ongoing academic debate about what shape the crude oil futures curve “should” take. Quite naturally, it seems backwardation is the market baseline. Most people, I think, presume otherwise because of their familiarity with commodities like gold. Backwardation in that market implies a physical shortage. Unlike that precious metal, crude oil is a usable commodity whose value [...]

COT Black: All The Trades Are Crowded Here

By |2018-01-11T18:45:09-05:00January 11th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Watching the crude oil market over the past few months has been a study in winding a rubber band, or a game of chicken. Each week it has been largely the same thing repeated: oil prices gently rise, backwardation in the futures curve keeps deepening, Money Managers in the futures market bet on higher oil, Dealers bet even more against [...]

COT Black: Bad News For Jerome, Swap Dealers Seem Really Convinced

By |2017-12-07T16:37:37-05:00December 7th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

US domestic stocks of crude oil continue to be quite high and now the futures curve is only a few pennies in the front month contract from being fully backwardated again. Contango is gone, which suggests that oil market is in sight of achieving some measure of balance. That anticipated equilibrium, however, is registering at less than $57 rather than [...]

COT Black: Crude Balance Here?

By |2017-11-10T18:06:41-05:00November 10th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Oil prices have had a very good run for several months now. Dating back to the recent low reached June 21, WTI is up an impressive 35% to a new two-year high. Crude hasn’t traded at $57 since June 2015. During this latest increase, the oil futures curve has finally achieved backwardation (which isn’t necessarily permanent). The long-awaited normalization is [...]

COT Report: Black (Crude) and Blue (UST’s)

By |2017-09-11T18:53:13-04:00September 11th, 2017|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Over the past month, crude prices have been pinned in a range $50 to the high side and ~$46 at the low. In the futures market, the price of crude is usually set by the money managers (how net long they shift). As discussed before, there have been notable exceptions to this paradigm including some big ones this year. It [...]

Commitment of Traders: Crude Confounding Confusion

By |2017-08-18T17:18:44-04:00August 18th, 2017|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The price of oil can’t seem to climb out of the $40’s despite a lot going for it at the moment. Oil prices matter right now as much as three years ago when they signaled serious trouble ahead. For them to get above $50 and then continue on would indicate for a lot of important places what everyone has expected [...]

About Those Secondary Speculators

By |2017-05-04T17:01:08-04:00May 4th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Back when the WTI curve was at its steepest contango, who was it that was buying up all that oil? A sheer vertical curve is an invitation to almost free money, very much like other curves everywhere else during the “rising dollar.” You could simultaneously buy crude at spot and sell it for delivery years ahead using a futures contract, [...]

Go to Top