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Weekly Market Pulse: Fear Itself

By |2023-05-08T09:18:54-04:00May 8th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. -Warren Buffett   Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own. -Nathan Rothschild Rothschild is said to have made a fortune buying assets in the wake of the Battle of Waterloo so in his case, he meant this literally. Another quote attributed [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: This Too Shall Pass

By |2023-04-24T09:11:36-04:00April 24th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

What is the state of the US economy? When will this long-anticipated recession finally arrive? And when it does, what does it mean for investors? Those are the questions everyone is asking and the answers are, well, hard. Despite years - decades, centuries? - of research, there is no accurate way I know of to predict the timing or depth [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Much Ado About Not Much

By |2023-04-17T09:06:33-04:00April 17th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

I sit down every week to write these updates and sometimes it is a struggle to find something - anything - worth writing about. Sure, there's always market "news" so I can find something to fill the page and I hope you find it interesting but the fact is that I don't think any investor - as opposed to trader [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: A Fatal Conceit

By |2023-01-23T10:00:11-05:00January 22nd, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Inflation* in the US is falling rapidly with the CPI rising just 0.9% in the second half of 2022 versus 5.4% in the first six months. Existing home sales are down 14.6% in the last 3 months and 34% over the last year. Housing starts are down 22% and permits are down 30% year-over-year. Orders for durable goods are down [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Welcome Back To The Old Normal

By |2022-05-02T20:46:23-04:00May 2nd, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Stagflation. It's a word that strikes fear in the hearts of investors, one that evokes memories - for some of us - of bell bottoms, disco, and Jimmy Carter's American malaise. The combination of weak growth and high inflation is the worst of all worlds, one that required a transformational leader and a cigar-chomping central banker to defeat the last [...]

Speaking of Japan’s Attention

By |2020-11-18T19:44:17-05:00November 18th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Speaking of Japan, it’s not difficult to figure out why Japanese banks might seek some small pittance from diving back in the choppy waters of eurodollar redistribution. Conditions at home, particularly since the middle of last year (right when the big turn Tokyo dollars came up), have been, to put it mildly, way less than ideal. Politicians listening to central [...]

Bottleneck In Japanese

By |2020-09-08T19:36:49-04:00September 8th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Japan’s yen is backward, at least so far as its trading direction may be concerned. This is all the more confusing especially over the past few months when this rising yen has actually been aiding the dollar crash narrative while in reality moving the opposite way from how the dollar system would be behaving if it was really happening. A [...]

Would The Real Dollar Please Stand Up

By |2020-07-27T19:46:53-04:00July 27th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On December 3, 2015, Europe’s central bank, the ECB, supposedly disappointed markets especially those trading European equities. Losses were large because Mario Draghi’s gang of policymakers merely extended its first QE rather than accelerating the pace of purchases. Investors, such as they were, had been told to expect more than that. To make matters worse, according to the mainstream narrative, [...]

Collateral Shortage Goes Global, Hinting At The Way The (euro)Dollar Reaches Its Eventual End

By |2020-03-25T18:56:44-04:00March 25th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Government securities have become so scarce that it is driving down repo rates. A collateral shortage that has become so acute, money dealers won’t part with their stock of government securities no matter what the price. Stop me if you’ve heard this before. Except, we’re talking about Japan and JGB’s here rather than UST’s. The trick is that both types [...]

At The Worst Times, The Dollar Goes Down When It Goes Up

By |2020-03-09T18:57:31-04:00March 9th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Is the dollar rising, or falling? Does it matter? In one sense, obviously it does. The way in which the dollar behaves dictates how everything else goes. The potential mix-up and confusion start when we have to define exactly what we mean by “dollar.” Or rising. The rising dollar doesn’t always rise. If we are talking about the US currency’s [...]

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