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Goldilocks And The Three Central Banks

By |2022-04-06T20:12:02-04:00April 6th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

This isn’t going to be like the tale of Goldilocks, at least not how it’s usually told. There are three central banks, sure, call them bears if you wish, each pursuing a different set of fuzzy policies. One is clearly hot, the other quite cold, the final almost certainly won’t be “just right.” Rather, this one in the middle simply [...]

Huge, Massive Difference: De-dollarizing vs. Being De-dollared

By |2020-07-20T17:56:40-04:00July 20th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There is a tremendous difference between the world de-dollarizing and those living in it being de-dollared. The former is a choice, the latter a fact of existence since August of 2007 (to varying degrees). Yet, most people, especially the “experts”, talk of only the first one as if that was all there is to it.Especially when it comes to China.We [...]

What Do China’s LPR Cut & Oil Chaos Share In Common?

By |2020-04-20T16:39:01-04:00April 20th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the second time this year, the PBOC has today affirmed Chinese banks are offering a lower benchmark loan rate. The Loan Prime Rate was reformed last August just in time for the monetary authorities in China to make it seem like they are being removed from the decisions. And in time for rate cuts to begin, too. What is [...]

Listen To China: Managed Decline, Not ‘Stimulus’

By |2019-12-26T13:00:55-05:00December 26th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

So much of the growth scare scenario relies upon China’s willingness to end it. By count of conventional Economics, there cannot be a case where a country like China just sits back and lets the economy fall into (further) decay. The argument will always devolve into some form of debate as to economic potential, but surely in a place like [...]

Sometimes Bad News Is Just Right

By |2018-12-13T18:47:32-05:00December 13th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There is some hope among those viewing bad news as good news. In China, where alarms are currently sounding the loudest, next week begins the plenary session for the State Council and its working groups. For several days, Communist authorities will weigh all the relevant factors, as they see them, and will then come up with the broad strokes for [...]

Converging Views Only Starts With Fed ‘Pause’

By |2018-12-06T18:25:19-05:00December 6th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There’s no sign of inflation, markets are unsettled, and now new economic data keeps confirming that dark side. Forget each month, every day there is something else suggesting a slowdown. That much had been evident across much of the global economy, but this is now different. The US has apparently been infected, too, not that that is any surprise. That’s [...]

The Dreaded Vote of Confidence

By |2018-07-03T11:50:35-04:00July 3rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Chinese officials are getting nervous. Everyone knows that whenever your favorite sports team struggles and fans are calling for the head coach’s head, any owner or general manager who then issues the dreaded (from the coach’s perspective) vote of confidence is essentially sealing his fate. PBOC Governor Yi Gang issued a similar sort of statement today. CNY is in freefall, [...]

The Boom Reality of Uncle He’s Globally Synchronized L

By |2018-03-19T12:22:25-04:00March 19th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Top Chinese leadership is taking further shape. With Xi Jinping’s continuing consolidation of power going on right this minute, most of the changes aren’t really changes, at least not internally. To the West, and to the mainstream, what the Chinese are doing seems odd, if not more than a little off. Unlike in the West, however, there is determined purpose [...]

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