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yield curve

Weekly Market Pulse: Been There, Done That

By |2023-03-20T07:51:06-04:00March 19th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

A bank's assets triple over a few years when interest rates are low. The bank invests those assets in long-term, higher-yielding municipal bonds with little credit risk. Inflation flares up and interest rates rise, reducing the value of the municipal bonds and funding dries up. Regulators become concerned that the failure of this bank could damage public confidence in the [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Follow The Delphic Maxims

By |2022-12-05T07:55:28-05:00December 4th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Note: This will be my last full commentary for 2022. I will spend the month of December on research for next year, visiting with family, and taking some much-needed time off. I will still be watching markets, as will all the other members of the Alhambra team and if something happens which requires me to communicate, I'll certainly do that. [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: I Don’t Know

By |2022-11-21T09:22:35-05:00November 21st, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Is the US economy on the verge of recession? Is it already in recession? We have several indications that the US economy is slowing and at least one that points to recession soon and maybe now. From the Conference Board's release of its Leading Economic Indicators last week: “The US LEI fell for an eighth consecutive month, suggesting the economy [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Good News, Bad News

By |2022-11-14T07:21:49-05:00November 14th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

One thing I can tell you for certain about last week's big rally on Thursday and Friday: there were a lot of people who desperately wanted a good excuse to buy stocks. And buy they did after a better-than-expected CPI report Thursday morning, pushing the S&P 500 up nearly 6% on the week with all of that coming on Thursday [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: It’s Always Different This Time

By |2022-11-07T09:29:26-05:00November 6th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The FOMC met last week and did what everyone expected them to do - raised the Fed Funds rate by 0.75%. The bond and stock markets reacted not to this action but to the commentary provided by the committee in its statement and by Chairman Jerome Powell at his post meeting press conference. The former had a new phrase, a [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Rational Optimist

By |2022-11-01T05:55:25-04:00October 31st, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

I have often been accused over the years of being too optimistic and I will plead guilty to having a little rose-colored tint in my glasses. I am an optimist by nature and I search constantly for good things to write about. There are more than enough people out there willing to tell you the world is coming to an [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Just A Little Volatility

By |2022-10-17T07:39:17-04:00October 16th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Markets were rather volatile last week. That's a wild understatement and what passes for sarcasm in the investment business. Stocks started the week waiting with bated (baited?) breath for the inflation reports of the week. It isn't surprising that the market is focused firmly on the rearview mirror for clues about the future since Jerome Powell has made it plain [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: The Real Reason The Fed Should Pause

By |2022-10-10T07:12:05-04:00October 9th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The Federal Reserve has been on a mission lately to make sure everyone knows they are serious about killing the inflation they created. Over the last two weeks, Federal Reserve officials delivered 37 speeches, all of the speakers competing to see who could be the most hawkish. Interest rates are going up they said, no matter how much it hurts, [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: A Tale of Two Economies

By |2022-08-08T07:17:43-04:00August 7th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

How odd is this economy? Two economic reports from last week, attempting to measure essentially the same thing, reported results that were so different they could be about two different countries. At 9:45 Wednesday morning, S&P Global reported their US Services PMI for July as 47.3 versus June's 52.7, a sudden and large one-month drop. When they reported the preliminary [...]

Weekly Market Commentary: Counterintuitive

By |2022-07-25T07:34:18-04:00July 24th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Where there is no hope it is incumbent on us to invent it. Albert Camus The economic data released last week was almost uniformly bad. We started the week with the NAHB Housing Index, a measure of builder sentiment, which fell from 67 to 55, much less than expected. Next up was more news on the housing market with starts [...]

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